Conflict

Writing focuses thought.

I was asked the question: Is conflict inevitable in the relationship between China and America?

Answer: Yes. Conflict is an inevitable and natural part of any inter-group dynamic. An economist would say it is the result of scarcity (of one resource or another), and a psychologist might argue that conflict is a part of the evolutionary development of the human psyche. A historian would point out that we can trace the first conquest-based empires back through thousands of years to Mesopotamia, while an anthropologist would go even further, reminding us that, excepting a few highly specific cases, conflict has been a part of every human society we've ever come across.

Whatever its origins, conflict is inevitable.

Now, does this mean that we should prep the fleet for departure, and warm up the nukes? Of course not. The United States is engaged in the type of conflict I'm talking about with China right now. War, distinct from conflict, is certainly not an inevitable scenario. The U.S. competes with China for oil and natural resources, for trade contracts and concessions, for influence among developing nations, for prestige, for military and technological advantage, and for a dozen other things on a daily basis.

Now, putting aside the semantics, however important they may be, and getting to the root of the question, the U.S. and China will probably not fight a war for at least 5 years. With the explicit understanding that this is based entirely on my opinions, China will not want to risk a war, however limited in scope for at least that long. They will want to increase their ability to disrupt U.S. C4I capabilities (our computer and battlespace awareness advantages), their ability to conduct amphibious assaults under hostile circumstances, and their ability to damage the U.S. economy before they initiate any decisive actions against Taiwan, the only serious area of potential conflict between China and the U.S.

Even if they increase these capabilities at a level that gives them parity with the U.S., it is by no means certain that they will choose to pursue the violent option. Taiwan has a significant party that favors reunification with the mainland. It also has increasingly strong ties with the economy of the its large neighbor. Further, the U.S., and the international community in general, has done a fairly good job incorporating China into the global community. The idea here is that as China becomes more entangled and interdependent on the global community, it becomes a guarantor of the stability of that community, unwilling to risk damage to its economy and the social unrest that such damage might cause. This is a decent argument, but obviously it only works if China believes that invading Taiwan would risk consequences that of that nature.

Right now the best option from the Chinese perspective is to wait. Time brings a stronger economy, a more professional and technologically enhanced military, and, perhaps most important of all, it brings Taiwan closer to the mainland both socially and economically. These are all trends that are difficult, perhaps impossible, to reverse, and they all favor China.

Conflict? Absolutely.
War? Not yet.

So there are my thoughts.