Revealations, Ruminations, and Regrets

Jay Cost has a great breakdown of the race right now. In it, to spare those poor souls for whom reading is an unpleasant chore for the anemic grey matter that rests comfortably above their necks, he presents a statistical arguement for why Obama's victories have not been due to any sort of momentum, but rather, because of the demographic contituencies he has put together.

Black voters vote for him overwhelmingly, but so do white voters with incomes over $50,000. Hillary plays better with women and Hispanics. The states that have voted so far haven't bucked any of the trends, it's more of a coincidence that 7 states that have favorable demographics for Obama were stacked in a row. It's a very interesting arguemnt.

And it indirectly highlights one of the critical aspects of politics in general: image management. The Obama campaign may be able to turn a demographic coincidence into actual momentum. In essence, they would take something that doesn't necessarily exist, if Mr. Cost is to be believed, and make it exist. And then it would have always existed; people will look back on this recent sweep of seven states as the time when Obama began to pull away.


But only a fool would count Hillary out. She's proven that too many times in an election where there are very good reasons to not trust previous patterns.



On the other side of the aisle, it's obviously over. Going back over some of the prediction I've made, I find myself a bit chagrinned at my initial thoughts on John McCain (interesting side note: do I like him more now because he won or because I know him better?). I find myself respecting McCain, and maybe regreting some of my earlier animosity.

Perhaps it's a weakness or psychological trick that draws those of us who follow politics in like moths to the quadrennial flame, but I really do think he's the best possible nominee. I think that now. I didn't then.

Perhaps it's the lackluster position that the Republican party finds itself in now. After 8 years of Bush and compassionate conservatism, talk of Democratic irreleveance as a national party seems further away than 3 years ago. Who would have thought that the Golden Boy of the Right, George W., would have been the man who sundered the conservative coalition apart? But the base is dispirited, the religious right is petulant, and the libertarians are cynical and bolting. The moderates are showing signs of Obamania.

Into this politically hellish perfect storm, could a better candidate be found than one who has clearly been at odds with his President and the extreme factions of his party? A man of nigh-on unimpeachable personal character, who also draws Hispanic and Independent voters in large numbers? A man who actually has a proven record of bipartisanship? In fact, a man who has shown himself to be so willing to work with moderates that the wing nuts of his own party did everything they could to torpedo his nomination?



I think not.